Mielies word geoes.
Foto: Charl van Rooyen
Volgens die jongste amptelike statistieke tot middel Julie is in byna ’n derde van die bemarkingsjaar (sedert begin Mei) altesaam 93 990 ton wit mielies uit Amerika en Mexiko ingevoer. Dit is minder as ’n tiende van die beraamde 1,1 miljoen ton invoermielies wat nodig is om in Suid-Afrika se behoeftes te voorsien.
Intussen waarsku mnr. Wandile Sihlobo van die landbousakekamer Agbiz ’n tekort aan wit mielies heers nou op die internasionale mark. Vroeër is berig dat Amerika nie meer wit mielies vir uitvoer beskikbaar het nie.
Die produsente-organisasie Graan SA beraam dat Suid-Afrika se verbruik van wit mielies in die huidige bemarkingsjaar, tot einde April 2017, sowat 4,3 miljoen ton behoort te beloop.
SA voer steeds wit mielies uit
Die verwagte plaaslike witmielie-oes is net 3,097 miljoen ton. Suid-Afrika voer ook steeds mielies na buurlande uit. Teen middel Julie het die totale uitvoersyfer op 13 264 ton gestaan, waarvan 62% wit mielies was en die res geel.
Lesotho het die meeste wit mielies ingevoer, gevolg deur Botswana, Namibië, Zimbabwe en Swaziland.
Sihlobo sê omdat Suid-Afrika vanjaar ’n netto invoerder van grane en oliesade gaan wees, behoort die plaaslike pryse van nou af die toonaangewende Chicago-beurs se markbewegings na te volg.
Wisselkoers
Daarby het die wisselkoers-bewegings van die rand teenoor die Amerikaanse dollar ook ’n groot invloed op die plaaslike mark. Dit behoort tot Oktober vanjaar die hoof-aandrywer op die plaaslike mark te bly, ten minste tot die Suid-Afrikaanse planttyd begin, sê hy.
Plaaslike sojaboonpryse is besonder wisselvallig weens wisselvalligheid op internasionale markte, en parsmarges is steeds onder druk.
Hoenders.
Foto: www.en.wikipedia.org
Plaaslike hoenderprodusente is onder groot druk weens duur voer, groot hoeveelhede ingevoerde hoender, en die druk waaronder verbruikers is. Die genoteerde pluimveeprodusent Astral sê in ʼn verklaring op Sens, die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs se nuusdiens, dat hy produksie gaan moet afskaal.
Mnr. Chris Schutte, uitvoerende hoof, sê die invloed van die drie bogenoemde faktore was in Astral se derde kwartaal, wat op 30 Junie geëindig het, erger as wat vroeër verwag is. Voerkoste sal na verwagting bly styg totdat verwagtinge vir ʼn beter mielie-oes in die 2016/’17-plantseisoen ʼn werklikheid word.
Die Astral-groep het ʼn invoerprogram vir mielies om die risiko van tekorte te versag en ook as teenwig teen die voortdurende prysstyging in die plaaslike mielieprys. Schutte sê die bedryf beleef verder rekordvlakke van hoenderinvoer, terwyl daar reeds ʼn ooraanbod in die land is.
Dit, tesame met ʼn verbruikersmark wat onder druk is, druk verkoopspryse afwaarts. Dit dwing die groep om verder in sy produksieketting terug te sny, sodat voorraad op bestuurbare vlakke kan wees en die situasie van ʼn ooraanbod só kan aandag kry. “Die uitwerking van die beplande produksie-inkorting sal ongelukkig ʼn nadelige invloed op die werkmag hê, omdat hulle minder ure sal werk.”
Schutte sê daar is middelgrootte tot groot onafhanklike pluimveeprodusente wat in erge finansiële nood is en besig is om toe te maak, of in sakeredding geplaas te word. As daar nie verligting rakende een van die sleutelbydraers tot die situasie kom nie, sal Astral verdere afskaling van produksie moet oorweeg, sê hy.
Suid-Afrikaanse ondernemings wat produkte na Zimbabwe uitvoer, moet druk op die Departement van Handel en Nywerheid plaas sodat daar oplossings gevind kan word vir die buurland se handelsversperrings.
Só sê mnr. Taapano Paradza, ʼn konsultant by XA International Trade Advisors. Hy sê druk is belangrik, anders gaan Zimbabwe net meer en meer versperrings daar stel. Sedert 17 Junie word lisensies vereis om ʼn lang lys produkte in Zimbabwe te kan invoer, terwyl permitte reeds ʼn geruime tyd vir sekere landbouprodukte vereis word.
Die voedselprodukte wat geraak word, sluit ingemaakte groente en sousboontjies in.
Lisensies
Invoerders in Zimbabwe moet by hul ministerie van handel en nywerheid vir dié lisensies aansoek doen. Van die dokumente wat vereis word is belastingklaringsertifikate, ’nbewys van registrasie van die onderneming, en ʼn motivering waarom dit nodig is om die produk te kan invoer. ʼn Aansoek kos $30 (sowat R428).
“Produkte waarvan daar nie voldoende produksie in Zimbabwe is om in die vraag te voorsien nie, het ʼn goeie kans om ʼn lisensie te kry,” sê Paradza. “Daar is egter byvoorbeeld baie produsente van mineraalwater in Zimbabwe, wat in die vraag daarna kan voorsien. Dit is onwaarskynlik dat ʼn lisensie toegestaan sal word om mineraalwater in te voer.”
Smouse
Paradza sê informele handelaars gaan moeilik vir lisensies kan aansoek doen, omdat hulle meestal nie geregistreerde ondernemings het nie en natuurlik nie belastingklaringsertifikate nie.
Die lisensievereistes gaan hulle dus swaar raak, en daarom na verwagting ook ondernemings in Musina waar hulle hul ware koop.
Permitte
Paradza sê Zimbabwe vereis al ʼn tyd lank invoerpermitte vir sekere landbouprodukte, waarvoor invoerders by die ministerie van landbou aansoek doen. Vir produkte soos kookolie, hoender en alle ander vleisprodukte word permitte nie toegestaan nie, omdat dit ook plaaslik in Zimbabwe geproduseer word.
Wetsgehoorsaam
Paradza se raad aan uitvoerders is om wette na te kom om probleme te voorkom. Hy sê middel-Julie is twee vragte met uie, aartappels en peper by die grens vernietig omdat die invoerder probeer het om dit sonder ʼn permit in te voer.
Lisensievereistes ‘verras’ SA
Dr. Rob Davies, Minister van Handel en Nywerheid, het op ʼn mediakonferensie waar die departement se nuwe eenheid vir die bevordering van handel en belegging in Afrika bekend gestel is, gesê Zimbabwe se lisensievereistes het Suid-Afrika verras.
Die twee lande was reeds in gesprek weens ʼn vroeëre vereiste vir die betaal van bybelasting op sowat 1 000 produktarieflyne, wat al verminder is, maar gesprekke was nog aan die gang.
Davies het gesê hy het ʼn vergadering met sy Zimbabwiese eweknie aangevra. Hy het bygevoeg ʼn verstandhouding kan bereik word waar Suid-Afrikaanse produkte Zimbabwe se eie produksievermoëns in gevaar stel, maar dat Suid-Afrika op sy regte kragtens reëls van die Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap gaan aandring as hy sien produkte word uit ander lande ingevoer.
Navrae: Kontak Paradza by tel. (012) 665 1271 of e-pos: taapano@xa.co.za.
Picture: RUSSELL ROBERTS
OVER the years, there have been structural changes in South African agricultural markets, which have had a significant influence on the trade and marketing of agricultural commodities, particularly that of maize.
Prior to the market liberalisation of the South African agricultural sector in 1997, the Marketing of Agricultural Products Act of 1968 provided a framework for domestic and international trading of agricultural commodities. The maize board, which is a single-channel fixed-price scheme, was established using a cost-plus approach to commodity pricing and margin determinations.
However, following the gradual liberalisation of the grain commodity markets in the mid-1980s and the removal of trade sanctions against SA, the country’s agricultural industry was liberalised in 1997. This meant that producers (farmers) and marketing agents would be more interlinked to global markets and thereby to market forces.
This era led to the formulation of the Marketing of Agricultural Products Act of 1996, which currently shapes SA’s agricultural marketing policy. Moreover, several trade reforms were enacted to meet the objective of establishing a market-orientated economy and to comply with the requirements of various trade agreements.
These structural changes in the maize market have given rise to the drive by many agricultural entities and government to assess, understand and improve the competitiveness of the industry. In this respect, a number of studies were done in many agricultural industries by both international and domestic researchers, but little was done on the South African maize industry.
While the industry continued to thrive under this new dispensation, participating in expert markets, the export trend seemed to be irregular and inconsistent, regardless of production volumes.
It is against this background that I recently evaluated the competitiveness of South African maize exports relative to that of global exporters. More specifically, the study aimed to assess whether SA can increase its market share in existing maize market. Lastly, it tried to identify other unexploited potential markets for the South African maize industry.
The key assumption underlying the research was that maize is homogeneous, as trade databases do not offer more nuanced product differentiation and, as a result, both yellow and white maize statistics conflate into a single product. To address this issue, I used the International Trade Centre’s (ITC) harmonised systems classification data, which essentially treats maize as a homogeneous product.
Different growth, trade and market indices were applied to assess the competitiveness of South African maize exports, and the scope to expand the market share in existing markets and to identify unexploited and attractive markets.
The study found that South African maize exports were competitive relative to leading global exporters. However, production costs analysis showed that SA was less competitive relative to Argentina, Brazil, the US and Ukraine.
Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and Zimbabwe were identified as high-potential and attractive markets that SA should prioritise to increase its export share in the short to medium term. Moreover, the Market Attractiveness Index showed that Indonesia, Nigeria, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Mauritius, the United Arab Emirates, Taiwan, Iran, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Yemen were the top 10 most attractive markets for South African maize exports.
Recommendations for developing South African maize exports would be to closely view the top 25 most attractive markets presented on the Market Attractiveness Index and strategically position the industry to access these markets.
There is also a need to design an industry export strategy that will prioritise these markets in line with business interests and to explore existing potential. Such an initiative can be carried out on a public-private partnership, where the private sector can provide business intelligence and the government can handle the diplomatic trade relations. Current South African maize exports are concentrated and there is scope to access new markets.
It is important to note that the study focused only on South African maize exports. However, there remains a scope to pursue a similar analysis of other agricultural commodities, such as soybeans and sorghum. Such studies would be beneficial to organised agriculture and to SA. Industry groups such as Grain SA are starting to focus on export expansion for grains and oilseeds. Competitiveness studies would be useful in guiding the vision of such industries and promoting the efficiency of export processes.
The grain industry is already seeing improvements in soybean production and sorghum. Moreover, there is potential for biofuel industry development. Hence competitive studies in these commodities are important to determine if SA will have sufficient capacity to provide in the expected consumption, or whether the industry will have to depend on imports.
• Sihlobo leads agribusiness intelligence research at the Agricultural Business Chamber. This article is based on his recent MA thesis in agricultural economics at Stellenbosch University.
TP Nchocho. Picture: JEREMY GLYN
THE Land Bank sees little stress in its loan book despite the worst drought in memory damaging harvests and raising prices of crops in the continent’s biggest maize producer.
The bank’s CEO, TP Nchocho, says that even though the grain-producing provinces have been affected, the bank has not seen any significant distresses in its loan book.
“Where farmers are unable to pay and we reschedule loans, we might adjust provisions upwards. Our provisions are still within the tolerance levels of the new accounting standards,” says Nchocho.
About 70% of the bank’s loans had been granted to farmers in areas of significant production, such as the Free State, which produced 40% of last year’s maize crop, and Mpumalanga, which accounted for 25%.
Growth in the gross loan book of the state-owned lender to farmers was “marginal” in the year that ended in March from 12 months earlier, says Nchocho. That is because growers planted crops in an area that was 28% smaller than in fiscal 2015, owing to the drought. Despite this, farm income is “surprisingly” likely to go up due to the higher prices, he says.
SA recorded the least rainfall last year – since records started in 1904 – damaging crops and herds and raising food prices. Farmers will need as much as R16.6bn in the year to March to subsidise feed purchases; provide grants and interest-rate subsidies to aid commercial growers in financial distress; and help operators pay workers, according to a report by farmers’ group Agri SA and others.
The Land Bank’s gross loan book was at R37.8bn on March 31 2015. The results for the 12 months to the end of March will be presented to Parliament later this year.
About 2,000 farmers were in severe financial distress and would not be able to gain access to credit in the coming season, because of the drought’s effect on their operations, according to the industry report. There were about 35,000 commercial farmers in the country of which about 15,000 did not have sufficient cash flow to support their farms, Business Day reported on Wednesday, citing Agri SA deputy executive director Christo van der Rheede.
The Land Bank is in the final stages of securing a R1.3bn loan from the World Bank to support farmers, says Nchocho. In March it obtained R5bn from the Public Investment Corporation. The bank foresees it will draw on this over the next three years. It has also set aside R400m for drought relief, he says.
Bloomberg
As the worst drought since records started in 1904 decimates food crops, import costs are surging. Picture: REUTERS/SIPHIWE SIBEKO
THOUSANDS of drought-stricken commercial farmers are considering selling their farms as they struggle to access funding to sustain their operations.
SA has been hit by successive droughts in the past three years. This year’s drought is the worst since 1992.
According to AgriSA, an organisation that represents commercial farmers, approximately 15,000 out of the 35,000 commercial farmers in the country “have their backs to the wall”, mostly because of the devastating drought.
The organisation called for immediate intervention from the government and banks until farmers could generate profits.
“We are concerned about the fact that more and more big commercial farmers now have their backs to the wall … they do not have the cash flow to support their operations any longer,” AgriSA deputy CE Christo van der Reede said on Tuesday. Agri SA had fielded hundreds of phone calls this week from farmers in dire straits.
AgriSA recently distributed R16m from the corporate sector, international donors, churches and the public to affected farmers.
But Van der Reede said it was just a drop in the ocean compared to what farmers needed to remain viable. The only way out for most of the affected farmers was for the government to make available subsidies to pay farm workers and to provide bank guarantees, which would allow farmers to continue borrowing from lending institutions, Van der Reede said.
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“Remember, many of these commercial farmers have had three droughts in a row … they took out big loans in previous years, and owe banks a lot of money. Because the drought situation has not improved, the farmers are unable to pay back the loans and, therefore, cannot access more loans from these banks,” said Van der Reede.
The farmers’ collective debt from the previous farming season stands at R125bn.
It was in nobody’s interest to see farmers shutting down their operations, said Van der Reede.
“This will lead to massive job losses and will have enormous implications on food security. We also want to see more black farmers emerge, but if these farmers close shop, who will mentor them?”
The Department of Water and Sanitation said it would take SA two to three years to recover from the drought. The government was continuing with interventions in regions declared drought disaster areas, department spokesman Mlimandlela Ndamase said.
These included supplying communities with water storage tanks and drilling boreholes.
Wandile Sihlobo, head economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber, said grain prices were likely to remain high for the rest of 2016. The price of maize was 50% higher than it was in 2015.
According to economist André Roux, struggling farmers could consider diversification.
“Tourism remains an underutilised source of wealth for the country… There is the ocean economy, ecotourism, nature reserves.”
With Penelope Mashego
