The South African Weather Service just released their seasonal climate watch, ranging from November 2015 to March 2016. Most models are showing the strengthening of an El-Niño episode towards the summer season with the expectation to continue throughout the autumn season.
The forecasting system is confidently showing that going towards the mid- and late-summer season, the likelihood of the continuation of dry conditions over most parts of the country is high. The likelihood of extreme warmer temperatures over most of South Africa is predicted to be high throughout the summer season.
Observations show that ENSO is currently in the strong El-Niño situation. The atmosphere is also responding to this strong SST (sea surface temperature) warming over the equatorial Pacific including the weakening of the trade winds and other typical patters. Most of the forecast model’s predictions indicate the strengthening of El Niño condition through the start of the austral summer and is expected to continue towards late summer and early autumn seasons.
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