According to Cobus Olivier, prediction scientist at the South Africa Weather Service, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was expected to remain in a neutral phase during South Africa’s summer period.
This meant that neither La Niña nor El Niño events were predicted, and that ENSO was unlikely to directly influence Southern Africa’s summer rainfall areas.
Observations showed that ENSO was gradually cooling towards the neutral phase, and forecasts suggested that it would remain in a neutral phase in the coming months.
“The likelihood for an El Niño event has decreased further from previous assessments, and as we are near the start of spring, the current forecasts tend to be more reliable,” he explained.
